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By Jon Herskovitz

SEOUL, Nov 4 (Reuters) - North Korea has increased pressure on regional powers trying to persuade it to abandon nuclear arms in exchange for massive aid by saying on Tuesday it had produced more plutonium to make atomic weapons. [ID:nSP492091]

Here are a few scenarios of what may happen next in the sputtering nuclear discussions among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States:

THE LESS TROUBLED DIPLOMATIC ROAD

- United States meets North Korea's demand for direct talks ahead of multinational discussions by sending its envoy for the state to Pyongyang. The North also meets U.S. demands that appear to include talks between its envoy Stephen Bosworth and Kang Sok-ju, a North Korean vice foreign minister who is often by leader Kim Jong-il's side at his few high-level meetings.

- International disarmament-for-aid talks restart, perhaps in a slightly different format, with the North agreeing to resume taking apart its plutonium-producing Yongbyon nuclear plant in return for aid and better diplomatic standing.

THE MORE LIKELY DIPLOMATIC ROUTE

- At this point, the Bosworth visit seems more likely than not, analysts said. But the North may not offer enough in terms of concessions to satisfy U.S. President Barack Obama's government or other regional powers.

- Regional powers may let impoverished North Korea stew a little more in its economic malaise that has been exacerbated by U.N. sanctions to punish it for its May nuclear test -- which have cut its cash cow of overseas arms sales -- and Pyongyang's plans to rebuild the state's broken economy by 2012.

- The North may lash out when Obama visits Asia later this month with some sort of military move to overshadow his trip.

STRATEGIC DECISION

- North Korea weighs whether it needs to give up part of its nuclear ambitions in return for much needed aid that would come through the nuclear deal.

- The North increasingly tries to warm frigid ties with the South in order to seek a resumption of aid suspended about two year ago due to political wrangling that was once equal to about 5 percent of its paltry annual economy.

- Pyongyang may try to force the hand of regional powers with moves they would see as provocations that could include: short-range missile launches, ballistic missile tests, restarting its reactor at Yongbyon and another nuclear test.

BOTTOM LINE

- If North Korea takes the concession route, the upper limit may be for it agreeing to take apart all of its Yongbyon plant and perhaps even giving away some of its stockpile of fissile material, which experts said could be enough for about eight nuclear bombs. Most analysts expect leader Kim would never surrender nuclear arms, which are seen at home as the crowning achievement of his military first rule. They expect he would also continue with uranium enrichment, would could provide the North with another route to atomic weapons several years from now.

- If the North stays away from the bargaining table, the chances of a new nuclear test increase. Experts do not expect the North to escalate tensions with a full-scale conflict because that would be a suicide move for Kim.

(Editing by Jonathan Thatcher and Jeremy Laurence)